CorpComms Magazine

The country is heading for a small Labour majority of a hung parliament if an analysis of two million tweets is to be believed.

Political analyst Tweetminster has analysed 376 constituencies represented on Twitter, as at 26 March, and counted the most mentioned candidate in each, giving a first past the post prediction which is then applied to the UK as a whole.

The survey found that Labour received 35 per cent of mentions, Conservatives 34 per cent, Liberal Democrats 22 per cent while nine per cent of Tweets were about other parties. The findings would translate into a Labour majority of about 14 seats out of 376.

Tweets currently indicate that Labour would win 138 seats, Conservatives 121 seats while the Liberal Democrats would pick up 55. While support for the SNP has declined, the survey found that Green candidates performed strongly in Brighton and Norwich and predicts a strong likelihood of a Green Party MP in one of these constituencies.

The inspiration for the experiment came from last year's general election in Japan, when a group of software engineers and PhD graduates from Tokyo University undertook a study analysing the correlation between 'online buzz' and election results.

The study aimed to assess whether word-of-mouth mentions of candidates could help to predict which ones would be successful. It found that the most mentioned candidate won the seat in a majority of constituencies.

share me: del.icio.us | digg | reddit | Tweet